3 teams, 1 point in the tense quality battle

With Gujarat Titans (GT), Punjab Kings (PBKS), and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) already through to the playoffs, just one spot remains up for grabs in IPL 2025. The fight for fourth place is now a three-way contest between Mumbai Indians (MI), Delhi Capitals (DC) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) as the league stage enters its final week.

While MI and DC are neck-to-neck after 12 games, LSG have an outside chance but only minimal. The Rishabh Pant-led outfit has been floundering in recent times, having won just one of their last five fixtures. Hence, one could say that it is a two-way battle but mathematically, LSG still holds a chance, albeit just.

Qualification Scenario: 3-way battle

Mumbai Indians (4th, 14 points, NRR +1.156)

Mumbai are best placed to take the final playoff spot. They have two matches left—against Delhi Capitals on May 21 and Punjab Kings on May 26. Wins in both games will guarantee qualification with 18 points. Even a single win, especially against Delhi, could be enough.

However, losing both matches will eliminate them. A loss to Delhi is particularly damaging, as it gives DC the head-to-head advantage. This basically means that the May 21 clash is a knockout game. With a better form and more players in fine nick, MI hold a better chance.

Delhi Capitals (5th, 13 points, NRR +0.260)

Delhi’s heavy defeat to the Gujarat Titans has hurt their Net Run Rate (NRR) and narrowed their margin for error. They now face a must-win scenario. Victories in both remaining games—against Mumbai and Punjab—will secure a top-four finish. If they beat Mumbai but lose to Punjab, they’ll need Mumbai to also lose to PBKS and for Lucknow to drop points. A loss to Mumbai will end their playoff hopes.

Lucknow Super Giants (7th, 10 points, NRR –0.469)

Lucknow are the outsiders in this race. With three matches left—against Sunrisers Hyderabad (May 19), Gujarat Titans (May 22), and RCB (May 27)—they need to win all to reach 16 points. Their low NRR means narrow wins won’t be enough; at least one dominant performance is essential. Even then, they require MI and DC to slip up in almost all their games.