Hello everyone! You may have noticed that it has been a while since the last bulletin. Because since I have been on leave for the last three months – and I will be on leave for most of the next three – but I wanted to check with a few thoughts and programming grades.
Since a few of you ask: Yes, the slope continues. When I return to work, there is no need to come back and there is a lot to cover. This is not an ordinary moment in American political history.
Here are a few themes in my mind so far:
People’s reaction to Trump’s second period
From the usual job approval surveys to deeper problems with the executive power, President Trump will probably be the subject of the year.
For this purpose, my colleagues have started to gather a questionnaire about the approval grade (we will add graphs with the average voting in the coming weeks).
Mr. Trump already threw his honeymoon after the election. The approval grade has returned below 50 percent and does not approve more Americans than confirming their performance. This is more or less where it was before the election.
There are good reasons to think that ratings will continue to slip. One of the better thumb rules in American politics is that the public tends to switch against the direction of policy change. Some political scientists call it a “thermostatic public opinion ,, which opens AC to cool things when the public begins to run very hot. A few presidential government government has led as warm as Mr. Trump, and there is not much reason to think that it would turn anything back on its own.
2024 elections and a new era
The 2024 elections may seem like old news, but it will echo for the coming years. As I wrote in December, we have entered a new age of politics, and there will be no way to understand where things are going without understanding the enormous changes of the last decade.
For the next month, we will finally get the last few important data pieces in the 2024 elections. Most importantly, we will have a comprehensive account of who is fully voting on voter registrations. We will also receive most of the results according to the region (my colleagues publish a detailed map of these results).
With the Times/Siena questionnaire, the role of participation, how demographic groups have changed, and why the polls did not underestimate Mr. Trump, such as the biggest questions about the biggest questions will be enough to present our best answers. We will do our best to analyze the most amazing changes of the elections from young boys and Spanish voters to Tiktok and the right to the new Silicon Valley.
Democrats
Mr. Trump did not win the 2024 election with a wide difference, but the Democrats were still defeated.
After all, Mr. Trump – a criminal who lost and then tried to overthrow his previous elections – was not a popular candidate. Output survey to create Only 46 percent had a positive opinion, 53 percent had a negative opinion. Being blunt: He won because voters thought the democrats were even worse.
As we wrote before the election, it may have lost landslides if the Democrats met a more typical Republican. Except for abortion and democracy (Republican own goals), the Democrats have essentially lost elections in every other issue. The Democrats have not encountered such a challenge since 1980.
Discussions about the future of the Democrats have already begun. There are several new angles on the view that my colleague’s call for “abundance” policy written together in Ezra Klein. However, most discussions have been another re -accounting of the repetitive discussions between the moderate and progressives of the party. This time, it is difficult to see how both sides can claim the answers to the big problems faced by the party.
The Democrats face more urgent difficulty: how to respond to Trump, who will probably do more than anything they do to shape the future of the Democrats.
This year will be a big issue. The next Democratic Presidency’s primary campaign is not as far away as it seems today; New York Democratic Mayor’s race continues.
Next election calendar
Apparently seems to be: Special elections in November, the elections of Virginia and New Jersey governors and rising to midterm exams next year.
I’m not sure this will be the most suspicious or two elections. In the first eight years of the Trump period – including the first special elections of the current period – we have seen enough to ensure that the Democrats will perform very well. In addition, we have seen enough to know that the Democrats could perform very well in such competitions without turning into a better chance in a presidential elections.
We will talk more about the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race and in a special Tuesday’s newsletter. congress elections Florida.
As a result: The Democrats may encounter serious questions about their identities and messages, but will probably not prevent them from publishing great victories in the next few years.
