The time after a presidential election may feel as a moment of clarity. After all, the results are finally inside.
However, in the last twenty years, the post -election period did not provide any clarity about the future of American politics. The winner’s party repeatedly convinces itself that it gains a duty, even a generation. Shellshocked losers are withdrawn to internal discussion. And then only a few months later, it seems that the next stage of American politics will not be what the winners dream.
This week, he started to focus on the next two years of American politics and does not seem like a maga or republican. “Golden age.” The private parliamentary elections in Florida and the election of the Supreme Court in Wisconsin confirmed that democratic voters did not actually submit to the elections last November. More importantly, President Trump’s comprehensive tariffs – and economic decline to follow – created tremendous political risks for Republicans.
In a way, the elections on Tuesday did not matter: they did not claim that the Democrats solved any of the problems that cost them in the last elections. Instead, they reflect the advantage of the party among the most informed, educated and civilian voters. This advantage allowed the democrats to be perfect in low -rotating elections during the Trump period, even if they made tremendous gains between the discontent and discrete young, working class and non -white voters that emerged only in the Presidential elections.
Nevertheless, the Democrats will not have to face most of these discontent voters until 2028. Last Tuesday, the results offer a reasonable preview of the elections for the next few years: great democratic victories, including next year’s interim elections.
There may be no one walking on pink hats, and the democrats of congress may be “dead, but the democratic special election power seems to be as big as 2017 and 2018 before turning the Blue Wave to control the house.
Perhaps this should not be a surprise: that was the last thing Mr. Trump won. But after the victory of Mr. Trump, this is not what the victory of Mr. Trump was not a “resistance ve and the“ vibrations ”that seems to create a cultural change to the right.
The tariffs announced on Wednesday that it has brought a completely different size political problem for Mr. Trump and his party. No party or politician is evidence of stagnation. Historically, even the dominant political parties experienced tremendous political defeats during great economic decline.
None of these cases – not even with disgrace Smoot-Hawley Tariff -Can the president of the Republic be held responsible for his own explanation as it is today? Whatever he felt after the election, the Republican Party is not even politically dominant.
If there is one thing, Mr. Trump and Republicans can be particularly vulnerable, because most of their political power is being built on economics. As a politician, he usually won the best ratings in addressing economic issues. As a successful businessman, he benefited from his reputation and effective economic management in his first period. Despite the tremendous personal obligations, he won the last election, because voters were disappointed with the economic turmoil following the end of the high prices and the end of his pandema.
New York Times/Siena College said that in the autumn last autumn, in 2024, Mr. Trump, but not 2020, but the most important issue for the votes of the economy or inflation.
Even before the tariffs of this week, Mr. Trump threw his honeymoon after the election. The approval grade fell below 50 percent and returned to the place where he stopped before the election. The first threats to increase tariffs, including partners such as Canada, Mexico and Europe, played an important role in reducing their support. In reversing the usual model, the latest surveys found that Mr. Trump’s ratings on the economy were even worse than the general approval grade. There were other indicators that their actions were receiving an early political wage: consumer confidence was falling, inflation expectations were increasing, and the surveys found that tariffs themselves were often not popular.
All this is decreasing compared to the tariffs that Mr. Trump entered into force on Wednesday. Of course, it is too early to judge the full economic impact and therefore the political sprinkle. It can be too early to know the final Trump tariff policy. For the same reason, most of Mr. Trump’s supporters will give politics a chance. The degree of approval may not fall overnight.
However, if tariffs cause a stagnation and significant price increases, as many economic analysts expected, a degree of approval provided can only be the beginning of their problems. While Mr. Trump could not run for the selection (although there were third term dreams), many republicans would be-and many of them were never on the ship with tariffs in the first place. Already, half dozen republican senator supported the legislation to restrain the president’s authority to impose tariffs. This is not close enough to overcome a presidential vetos, but it is an extraordinary republican opposition level to Mr. Trump, and the time to build the opposition is not close to anywhere.
If the economic spread is bad enough, dissatisfaction with the Trump administration can be united with the advantage of a long -standing democratic participation in 2026 to make seemingly secure republican states – thinking about Kansas, Iowa and Texas – perhaps it looks reasonable with the control of the Senate. Congress republicans can be supported (or their other excesses – on the tariffs or other excesses of Mr. Trump – on the tariffs or other excesses.
For now, potentially extraordinary developments in the distant future. They are not necessarily possible. However, as the second term of Mr. Trump is shaped, it seems increasingly clear that the “Golden Age ılan, which was increased by the“ vibrations önemk after the election, is still less likely.
