An earthquake estimate has become viral. Does it give people wrong hope?

Brent Dmitruk calls him an earthquake forester.

In mid -October, tens of thousands of social media followers, the small coastal city Eureka, south of Eureka, Californiya’nın the westernmost point of an earthquake, he said.

Two months later, a size 7.3 hit the site in Northern California – put millions of people into a tsunami warning and followed online because Mr. Dmitruk returned to him to predict the next.

On the eve of the New Year, “So for the people who dismiss what I do, you can claim that it is just a coincidence. It requires serious skill to understand where the earthquakes will go,” he said..

However, there is a problem: earthquakes are unpredictable, scientists who study them.

What makes them so disturbing is preciseness. Millions of people living on the west coast of North America are afraid that the “big one” can hit at any moment and can change the landscapes and countless lives.

Lucy Jones, a seismologist who has been working for more than thirty years for the US Geology Research (USGS), focused on most of his research on earthquake possibilities and increased the flexibility that would withstand such disaster events.

As long as he examined the earthquakes, Ms. Jones said that there are people who want an answer that will come true and break the code – which means different things in different regions.

“The need to do a mold in the face of danger is an extremely powerful, very normal human reaction to fear.” He said. “Nevertheless, there is no predictive power.”

According to the US Geological Study (USGS), it feels approximately 100,000 earthquakes worldwide every year, it can be understood that people want to get warning.

Eureka region – 270 miles (434km) of San Francisco, where the earthquake of December took place, a coastal city felt only more than 700 earthquakes last year – only more than 10 last week.

According to USGS, the region, where Mr. Dmitruk predicted that an earthquake would take place, is one of the most “seismic active areas” of the US. The volatility is due to three tectonic plates, which is an area known as Mendocino triple intersection.

It is the movement of the plates that cause stress to accumulate – above, below or next to them. An earthquake may occur when stress is released.

Mis Mrs. Jones said, although it is quite rare of a strong seven magnitude.

USGS says that since 1900, it has only 11 earthquakes or more powerful. Five in the same regions, including Mr. Dmitruk, introduced on social media.

Although the estimate is true, Mrs. Jones told BBC that there is no possible earthquake, including the largest, species that destroy society.

Jones said it was a complex and “dynamic” geological factor set that caused an earthquake.

The size of an earthquake, the incident occurred as it took place, said that it used a piece of paper as an analogy: RIP will continue unless there is anything that stops or slows it – like a water signs that leave the paper wet.

Scientists know why an earthquake took place – sudden movements along the fault lines – but to predict such an event, USGS cannot be done and says, “We don’t expect to know the time in the predictable future.”

The agency states that it can calculate the probability of earthquakes in a particular region within a certain year – but this is as close as they can.

Geological records show that some of the largest types of earthquakes known as “large” to the locals are realized with some regularity. The shift of the Cascadia Batma region every 300 to 500 years is known to raise the Pacific regularly. 100 FT (30.5 meters) Mega-Tsunamis and North-West Coast.

Although the San Andreas error in Southern California is the source of another potential “large”, bone bell earthquakes take place every 200-300 years. Experts, “big one” can be in both regions, he said.

During his career, Mrs. Jones says that a few thousand people have warned him about a great earthquake forecasts – including people who will send fax to his office in the hopes of warning them in the 1990s.

“When you get a guess every week, someone will be lucky, right?” He says with a laugh. “But then that would usually go to their heads and they predicted that it wasn’t right.”

Such a scenario seems to have happened with Mr. Dmitruk without a science history. He said that an incredibly large earth will hit South-West Alaska, Japan or the islands on the coast of New Zealand, and may disrupt global trade.

USGS says that an earthquake estimate should be three -defined elements for any benefit – a date and time, the earthquake, and the size.

However, Mr. Dmitruk’s timeline continues to change.

At one point, he said he would come just before or after the opening of US President Donald Trump.

Then he said he would definitely be before 2030.

Although this great earthquake has not yet been shot, Mr. Dmitruk said he still believes that this will happen.

Orum I don’t believe it is just a chance, Mr Mr. Dmitruk said to the BBC. “It’s not random or luck.”

Jones said this kind of thought is common when it comes to the earthquake.

“Random distribution may seem to have patterns, we see constellations in the stars,” he said.

“Many people are really afraid of earthquakes, and the way to deal with it is to predict [when] will be. “

However, experts do not mean that you should be unprepared, as you cannot predict when an earth will hit.

Every year, on the third Thursday of October, millions of Americans participate in the largest earthquake exercise in the world: Great hug.

It was created by a group in the Southern California Earthquake Center, including Mrs. Jones.

During the drill, people apply drops, covering and holding guidance: fall into their knees, cover under a solid object like a table and wait for a minute.

The drill has become so popular since its establishment that it has spread the earthquake -prone coast to other states and countries.

In the outdoor, it is recommended that people reach an open space away from trees, buildings or power lines. Near the ocean, people escape to the higher floor after tremor to prepare for a tsunami possibility.

“Now, although the ground does not tremble, even though it is not very stressful, it is really the best time to practice,” Washington State Emergency Management Department Earthquake and Volkan Program Manager. He said.

In addition to the exercises, West Coast state residents use a telephone warning system called Shakealert by USGS.

The system works by detecting pressure waves emitted by an earthquake. Although he cannot predict when an earthquake will be in the remote future, he gives a second warning that can be a life -saving. An earthquake that has been invented so far is the closest thing to the “foresight”.