[Follow live election results in Florida’s First and Sixth Districts]
The Democrats hope for a long victory in private elections while trying to erode the narrow majority of GOP in the Parliament in the first and sixth congress regions of Florida on Tuesday.
The regions heavily Republican: In November, President Trump won Florida 30 points with a 37 -point margin and the sixth point.
However, special elections tend to be better for democrats who have already achieved sadness in many state legislative elections this year. In January, a democratic candidate for a state Senate seat in Iowa He won four points In a region, Mr. Trump had received 20 points. A Pennsylvania Democrat in March He won two points Mr. Trump in a special state senate in a region where he received more than 10 points last year.
We watch the partisan division of voters voting in both Florida private home races. While the data on which voters emerge, it may be useful to understand which party has an advantage, but cannot tell us who will win. Once, democratic or Republican voters may not vote for the candidate of their parties. In addition, a significant share of voters is not registered on both sides.
We have divided the participation into two buckets: “Early Participation”, which covers the “Election Day Participation”, which will be filled as people personally vote on Tuesday. The surveys will close on Tuesday at 20.00 in the sixth region in the sixth region.
Keep in mind that partisanship may vary significantly between those who voted and voting on the Election Day. In general, especially those who vote voted by mail, early voters tend to be more democratic than people who vote on the election day.
For the context, our audience also includes the results of the presidential elections in these regions and the results of the Presidential Elections for Early and Election Day voters of 2024.
Florida’s first congress zone was represented by Matt Gaetz, who resigned a few days after he was re -elected by Mr. Trump as a prosecutor. Mr. Gaetz finally evaluated himself. Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis in the vote.
After the President Trump elected him as a National Security Advisor, he was evacuated by Michael Waltz, the sixth congress region of Florida. Mr. Waltz recently included an Atlantic Editor in a signal group conversation and we discussed the sensitive military plans of the highest -level US officials. Joshua Weil, a democrat, and the Republican Randy Fine are running for her old seat.
Jonah Smith Contributor data analysis.
