- Stocks are falling, bond prices increase and gold, Trump’s mutual tariffs are rising to the highest level of all time.
- US President Trump confirmed that all countries will be targeted on Sunday.
- The US Dollar Index is trading around 104.10 without a secure flow in Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which follows the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six main currencies, is trading straight on Monday and sees that traders do not position Greenback. DXY is completely left in the dark while selling stocks, bond prices are higher, and gold has reached the highest level of freshly over $ 3,100 in the early hours of the day. Movement, US (USA) President Donald Trump’ın Airforce One on Sunday after repeating, all countries will be under mutual tariffs on Wednesday ‘Independence Day.
Something that became clear last week is that the US Dollar (USD) moves depending on the economic data of the US, and that the fears of stagflation or stagnation weaken Greenback. Thus, Monday’s focus will move to March’s Chicago Purchasing Manager Index and Dallas Fed Production Work Index. Contractions and slow decreases at these economic data points can trigger another leg in DXY.
Daily Digest Market Carriers: Gear for Chicago PMI
- 13:45 The Chicago Purchase Manager Index (PMI) will be released on GMT. Expectations are only one tick lower than the previous 45.5 for 45.4.
- 14:30 Dallas Federal Reserve (FED) will release the Manufacturing Operation Index for March. Previous reading -8.3 is not estimated.
- Stocks are making lower dives with 1.0% to 2.0% transition from Asia over Europe and transition to US -term transactions.
- According to the CME Fedwatch vehicle, the probability of remaining 4.25-4.50%in the current range at the May meeting is 82.1%. For the meeting held in June, borrowing costs are 81.2%lower.
- The US 10 -year return is trading around 4.20%, a significant decrease is lower and the Fedwatch vehicle has a high chance for the deduction in June.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not exceptional anymore
The US Dollar Index (DXY) responded last week and this Monday is a question in the minds of merchants. Tariffs do not explicitly affect the US dollar. Instead, the US economic data seems to affect Greenback, as seen on Friday, with the economic data, consumer sensation and inflation expectations that reduce the US dollar. Fear of recession or stagflation no longer support a stronger US dollar, and more evidence of stagflation can descend Dxy more.
In the coming days, a return to 105.00 round level may occur, the 200 -day simple moving average (SMA) closes at this point and strengthens this area as a strong resistance in 104.94. After breaking from this region, a number of significant levels such as 105.53 and 105.89 may limit upward momentum.
The disadvantage is the first nearby support, although the round level of 104.00, on Friday and again after being tested this Monday. If this level is not valid, the risk of DXY falls to the March range between 104.00 and 103.00. When the lower end of 103.00 gives attention to 101.90 in the lower direction.
US Dollar Index: Daily Graphics
Risk Emotion Fives
In the World of Financial Jargon the Two Widly Used Terms Assets In A “Risk-Off” Market Investors Start to ‘Play.
Typically, during the “risk-on” periods, the stock exchanges will rise, and most commodities, except gold, will gain value because they benefit from a positive growth appearance. The currencies of nations with heavy commodity exporters are strengthened due to increasing demand and crypto currencies are increasing. Bonds are rising in the “Risk-Off” market-especially the great government bonds-gold shines and safe currencies such as Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US dollar are all benefits.
Australian dollars (AUD), Canadian Dollars (CAD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Ruble (Rub) and South Africa Rand (membrane) tend to rise in markets with “risk”. The reason for this is that the economies of these currencies are largely dependent on commodity exports for growth and the commodities tend to rise in price during risk periods. The reason for this is to foresee investors’ demand for raw materials in the future due to increasing economic activity.
The main currencies that tend to rise during the “risk-off” periods are US dollar (USD), Japanese YEN (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF). The US dollar, because this world’s reserve currency and crisis investors are buying the government debt in times of time, because the world’s largest economy is unlikely to be default. Yen is a high ratio by domestic investors who have low probability of abandoning them even in a crisis because the demand for Japanese government bonds is increased. Switzerland francs, because strict Swiss banking laws offer more capital protection to investors.
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