- Traders do not show interest in Greenback, volatility in DXY is bored.
- US President Trump will publish mutual tariffs for all countries on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar Index is trading around 104.10 when searching for any driver.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which follows the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six main currencies, combines high and low levels this week at a level of 104.00 rounds this week. Obviously, market participants are currently not fond of Greenback in the midst of tariff uncertainty. Richmond Federal Reserve (FED) Bank President Thomas Barkin said that economic reading was wrapped with a thick fog and that the Fed was uncertain to read where the proportions should go, and that the fears of stagnation are still on the table.
This week’s economic data bulletins can activate things that move towards non -agricultural payroll data to be published on Friday. This Tuesday, due to slowing down in US consumption, a much lower number in the labor force may show less demand for a lower number of US business openings for February. The US Supply Management Institute (ISM) will release walking production data.
Daily Digest Market Carriers: Data with the potential to carry markets
- At 13:00 GMT, Richmond Bank Fed President Thomas Barkin will talk.
- 13:45 In GMT, the US S&P Global Production Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will see the last reading of March. Expectations are for a fixed 49.8.
- In 14:00 GMT, the collective data version will take place:
- US ISM Production Data for March:
- PMI component is expected to fall into contraction at 49.5 from 50.3.
- Paid prices are expected to increase from 65.4 to 65.
- New orders were not estimated and previously 48.6.
- The employment index has no survey number and was 47.6 for the last time.
- The US business opening for February is expected to fall against 7.63 million jobs against 7.74 million in January.
- The US Economic Improvement Index is expected to rise from the Technometrica Institute of Politics and Politics in April (TIPP) to rise from 49.8 to 50.1.
- US ISM Production Data for March:
- Stocks are everywhere this Tuesday. Asian futures transactions are closed throughout the day, European ones are gathered close to 1.00%. US stocks still make their decisions.
- According to the CME Fedwatch vehicle, the probability of 4.25-4.50%in the current range at the May meeting is 85.5%. Borrowing costs for the June meeting is a stance of 74.4%.
- The US is trading around 4.17%and a new low for three weeks.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Count for ‘Independence Day
The US Dollar Index (DXY) sees that other asset classes are supported for the ‘Day of Liberation’, which was determined around 19:00 on Wednesday, around 19:00 GMT. The fact that Greenback is not understood again with the announcement shows that when gold sudden increases and US bond returns fall, foreign exchange traders expect the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy. With this data full week, there are high hopes that DXY can finally move higher or lower.
In the coming days, a return to 105.00 round level may occur, the 200 -day simple moving average (SMA) closes at this point and strengthens this area as a strong resistance in 104.93. After breaking from this region, a number of significant levels such as 105.53 and 105.89 may limit upward momentum.
The disadvantage is the first support near the nearby, although it looks gloomy after being tested on Friday and Mondays. If this level is not valid, the risk of DXY falls to the March range between 104.00 and 103.00. When the lower end of 103.00 gives attention to 101.90 in the lower direction.
US Dollar Index: Daily Graphics
US Dollar FAQ
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States and a significant number of other countries in circulation with local notes. According to data in 2022, it is the world’s most severe currency, which creates more than 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover or an average of $ 6.6 trillion per day. After World War II, the USD took over as a world reserve currency from the British pound. For most history, the US dollar was supported by gold until the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, when the gold standard disappeared.
The most important factor affecting the value of the US dollar is the monetary policy shaped by the Federal Reserve (FED). The Fed has two powers: to prove price stability (control inflation) and full employment. To reach these two goals, the primary vehicle is to adjust interest rates. When prices increase very quickly and the inflation is above the 2% target of the FED, the FED will increase the ratios, which will help the USD value. When inflation drops below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed may reduce heavy interest rates on Greenback.
In extreme cases, the federal reserve may also print more dollars and make quantitative facilitating (QE) into force. QE is the process of significantly increasing the Fed’s credit flow in a stuck financial system. It is a non -standard policy measure used when the loan is dry, because banks will not lend to each other (the other party fear of default). It is unlikely to obtain the necessary result in lowering interest rates. It was the preferred weapon of the FED to fight against the credit crisis that occurred during the major financial crisis in 2008. The FED contains more dollars and uses them mainly to buy US government bonds from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US dollar.
Quantitative Completion (QT) is the inverse process in which the Federal Reserve stops receiving bonds from financial institutions and does not re -invest in the bonds in which the manager matures in new purchases. It is usually positive for US dollar.
