The second gop debate can be smaller with Trump or without Trump

The primary debate of the second Republican Presidency for less than two weeks, so time is exhausted for GOP contestants To meet the competence criteria of the Republican National Committee. To make the debate on September 27, Every candidate must have At least 3 percent in two qualified national surveys, or at least 3 percent in a national survey and the same figure, the same figure from two different early voting states carried out since August 1. Each candidate should provide evidence that it has reached at least 50,000 unique donors to its campaigns. And if they have chests and donors, candidates will have to sign a commitment to support the party’s final 2024 candidate if they want to participate.

As long as things stop, there is a good chance for less than eight candidates to be entitled. Who attended the party’s first meeting in August. Six of them seems to have donors and surveys to make the second debate, and each of them signed RNC’s first debate, so there is no reason to think that they will not sign again. However, the North Dakota government Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. ASA Hutchinson may have a problem with surveys and donors under higher September thresholds. And even though he easily described the first debate, save RNC’s hostage – Save to sign the hostage – Former President Donald Trump Set appears To avoid the second discussionmore.

Analysis of Fivethirtyeight, Florida Gov. Ron Desantis and Technology Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy found that he had at least 3 percent support in each qualifying survey (Trump did). Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey government Chris Christie met this sign in almost every survey, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott came there about a quarter. And none of these six candidates showed any signs of difficulty when it came to reaching the 50,000 donor signs. Even Pence’s campaign that spends more difficult time than most to attract donors Announced in mid -August Those who contributed unique enough to be entitled to the second debate.

When the 25th day remains until the deadline for the 25th of September, the voting threshold rises from 1 percent to 3 percent. My burgum announced in late July He found that he has 50,000 donors, but the analysis of Fivethirtyeight reached 3 percent in a state -of -the -side survey, Mid of August Iowa Survey from Trafalgar Group. Now, Burgum’s campaign can claim that it has reached 3 percent in New Hampshire. Mid of August Trafalgar Survey or 4 percent August Early Survey from CO/Effective New Hampshire Journal. Although RNC shows no indication that RNC is willing to round the results of the survey reported by decimal places during the competence, we cannot ignore that RNC may count the second trafalgar survey. However, co/efficient He destroyed this cycle for TrumpNew Hampshire will not be counted RNC under the polling rule HE Excludes surveys carried out by affiliated organizations with a candidate or candidate committee.

Nevertheless, regardless of whether there were surveys from one or two early states, Burgum fought to hit 3 percent of national surveys. Best of America Pac, a super pac that supports Burgum, is not surprising, In advertising of $ 4 million Between 30 August and September 24. However, there is not much evidence that this increases Burgum: the most productive national interviewer, Morning consultationHe has published data for seven polls across the country since August 1, but my burgum earned only more than 0 percent money once Fucking to 1 percent in a survey in mid -August This foresees Super Pac to buy ads. In fact, the Burgum has reached 2 percent in only one national survey, which exemplifies at least 800 republican voters since August 1st. Tiger Strategies Survey It was carried out immediately after the first debate.

By the way, Hutchinson needs both surveys And Although it may seem likely to reach the 50,000 contribution sign, donors to make the stage. Last week, a campaign spokesman told ABC News that Hutchinson was “very close to the donor requirement and It received last minute increase in contributors First debate. On the polling front, Hutchinson has something that Burgum does not do: thanks to a 3 percent or better national survey, A tiger strategy survey taken before the first discussion. However, Hutchinson did not exceed 1 percent in any potentially suitable survey since the first debate. And he did not do anything better in early state research, which makes RNC receive qualified surveys from two different states to combine other voting with a national survey to meet the path of competence.

It is difficult to imagine that any other Republican will have a chance to participate in the September discussion. Former Texas representative Will Hurd seems to have a qualifying survey from New Hampshire – Echelon Insights/Republican Main Street Partnership Survey – But like Burgum and Hutchinson, most of the survey struggled to clean 1 percent. And while scrap Can reach 50,000 donor markshis Rejecting the public to sign RNC’s word to the public It guarantees that it will almost not take the stage. In addition, businessman Perry Johnson and radio presenter Larry Elder approached the first debate and both Threatened the legal process Against RNC argue He unjustly kept them away from the stage. But even if Johnson and/or Elder can reach 50,000 donors – Johnson It was claimed to have so many In mid-August, there is no qualified survey on behalf of any candidate.

Finally, Trump’s presence – or deficiency – appears in the discussion process. The former President votes over 50 percent in the national average of Fivethirtyeight, making him a clear favorite to win his gop candidacy. However, although Trump’s average fell a little after the first debate, he actually returned to his pre -decorative position and shows that voters did not really punish him because he skipped the event. Then it’s not surprising then Seems intend to skip the second debate And to make counter -programming that evening, just like the first discussion A pre -banded interview Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News server, was also released.

Probably the absence of Trump and the second debate will once again be a conflict between the leading alternatives of the party, none of them is positioned to make an important challenge to Trump. Nevertheless, it is critical for these candidates to do the discussion phase, because not being able to be unable to show donors may show that their campaigns are not really a chance of success. Moreover, Trump will provide an opportunity for other republican contestants without holding the spotlight. to be seen by a wide audience and to be heard. This is a chance that candidates do not want to get off, as a discussion performance of the candidates. it could be – Change the course of your campaigns.