In the midst of US policy uncertainty, JPMorgan Chase sees a stock market index that performs better than the S&P 500 for the next 15 years.
The bank, Behemoth JPMorgan Chase says that a stock market index looks ready to reversal and performs better than the S&P 500 in the next decade.
In a new investment strategy note, JPMorgan Analysts Andrew Vanwazer and William M. Smith, S&P 500, leaving the MSCI EAFE index significantly behind for about 16 years, but it can start to change.
The MSCI EAFE Index monitors the performance of the stocks of large and middle cover companies in Europe, Australia and Far East. Investors use the index as a criterion for the performance of international equity portfolios.
Vanwazer and Smith to say–
“Since the mid -2008, S&P 500 beat the EAFE index with a large margin and brought an average of 11.9% to 11.9% annually until December 2024.”
However, JPMorgan says that the US exceptionalism has begun to crack after China’s startup Deepseek has started a model that could compete against the best AI platforms of China, especially in the technology sector.
“For example, as soon as the news about Deepseek is broken, the relative valuation of the US market to EAFE fell from 55% to 49% – since then to 39% (as of 11 March).”
According to JPMorgan analysts, the uncertainties surrounding the US economic and foreign policies have added the confidence of the consumer, and the increase in inflation due to Trump’s tariffs and the potential solution of the Ukraine War can serve as a catalyst for a market -led change.
“Long -term capital market assumptions of JPMorgan Asset Management (LTCMAs), EAFE stocks can perform 1.4% (6.7% against 8.1% against 8.1% against 8.1%) according to a 10 to 15 -year investment horizon. He argued that he could be designed in a higher way. “
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