- Gold is hitting the highest level of all time in speculation, where Trump’s April 2 tariffs can target all trade partners.
- Goldman increased US stagnation rates to 35% as the emotion deteriorated and pointed to Washington’s slowing tolerance.
- DXY and yields are rising, but he can’t break the Gold’s rally, because the US key streams dominated in front of the dominant US data.
Gold prints another record on Monday and exceeds the $ 3,100 threshold for the first time and extends its earnings to $ 3,127 before withdrawing a little bit. The uncertainty surrounding the US trade policies and the day of Liberation of April 2 continues, investors avoid risk and flock to the safe attraction of yellow metal. During writing, XAU/USD is traded at $ 3,119, an increase of more than 1%.
As traders wait for the announcement of additional tariffs on Wednesday, the risk appetite deteriorates. Goldman Sachs revealed that the possibility of a stagnation in the United States (USA) increased from 20% to 35% due to the pessimism of the business and households of the perspective and Washington’s tolerance to a deeper economic slowdown.
Trump’s comments on Air Force One on Sunday increased the chances of being universal of tariffs instead of 10 or 15 announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The President said, “You said 10 or 15 to you? You may have heard it, but you didn’t hear it from me”. “You will start with all countries. So let’s see what will happen.”
For this reason, the US Treasury bond returns, especially the 10-year-old coupon, some floor, although it has recovered, though bullion prices exploded. The US dollar index (DXY), which follows the value of money against a basket of six currencies, climbs to 104.25% to 0.24%.
On the data front, Chicago PMI developed despite the fact that it stayed in the contraction area for the sixteenth plain months. This week, the US economic document, ISM manufacturing and services will include PMI and non -Farm payroll numbers.
Daily Digest Market Carriers: Firm gold prices are rising between US Treasury returns
- The US 10-year T-Not yield is fixed at 4.257%. US 10 -year Treasury inflation -protected securities (tips), according to the yield, the US Real reduces the two BPS to 1.86%.
- For March, Chicago PMI data increased from 45.5 to 47.6 points and exceeded 45.2 forecasts. In particular, it is the largest level since November 2023, but it remains in the contraction zone for the sixteenth month in a row.
- Some sub -components such as production, new orders, employment and order savings have developed. According to the survey, supplier deliveries, inventories and prices fell.
- According to the US Economic Analysis Bureau, last week’s US inflation data remained steadily. However, according to the data obtained from the Chicago Trade Board, the risks of a stagnation pushed market participants to pricing at 74 basic points towards the end of 2025.
- In the field of geopolitics, US President Donald Trump threatened to apply 25-50% secondary tariffs to Russian oil buyers if it prevented their efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
- Wall Street’s banks updated gold forecasts last week. According to the Kitco article, economists in Goldman Sachs, Société Générale and Bank of America defined $ 3,300 as the next target.
XAU/USD Technical View: Golden Price 3,050 $ Eyes, Eyes $ 3,100
Gold is expanding the rally. Yellow Metal has increased by 18.96% so far this year and the rising trend may continue due to uncertainty in the financial markets. Although the relative power index (RSI) is over -charming, the merchants should be aware that the most end level is 80 due to the aggression of the movement.
The next resistance of the XAU/USD will be up to $ 3,150 and $ 3,200. On the other hand, the first support will be $ 3,100. The infringement of the latter will reveal the high -return support of March 20 to $ 3,057 and then $ 3,000.
Golden FAQ
Since gold is widely used as a means of value and change, it has played an important role in human history. Currently, in addition to its brightness and jewelry, precious metal is widely seen as a safe asset, that is, it is considered a good investment in turbulent times. Gold is also seen as a fence against currencies against inflation and depreciation because it is not based on a particular exporter or government.
Central banks are the largest gold holders. In order to support currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify and purchase gold to increase the perceived power of the economy and currency. High gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s payment power. According to World Gold Council data, central banks added 1,136 tons of gold worth about 70 billion dollars to their reserves in 2022. This is the highest annual purchase since the registrations started. Central banks of developing economies such as China, India and Türkiye are rapidly increasing their gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with both large reserves and safe assets, US Dollar and US treasures. The dollar tends to rise in the depreciation and allows investors and central banks to diversify their presence in turbulent times. Gold is also contrary to risk assets. While a rally on the stock market tends to weaken the gold price, sales in the risk markets tend to support valuable metal.
The price can act due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or a deep fear of stagnation can rapidly increase the price of gold due to safe protected status. As an inefficient asset, gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while the higher cost of money usually gives weight on the yellow metal. Nevertheless, most moves depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves as priced as dollar (XAU/USD). A strong dollar tends to control the gold price, while a weaker dollar raises gold prices.
