- US Vice President JD Vance’s comments about Europe in the leaked signal conversation may be stretched from the Trump administration.
- US President Trump publishes “secondary tariffs ve and puts Venezuela oil exports as an example.
- The US Dollar Index cannot break 104.50 after a short test.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which followed the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six main currencies, was broken below 104.00 after the headings of US (USA (USA) President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. While writing on Tuesday, the index processes a little more than 104.00, and the markets evaluate two main stories. The first market driver comes from Donald Trump, the President of the United States (USA), who has published 25% “secondary tariffs öne from the countries that still buy oil from Venezuela. Bloomberg, Trump, will begin on April 2 and have alleviated the size and width of mutual tariffs that interpret more targeted tariffs on cars, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, chips and timber.
Meanwhile, a US news editor accidentally was invited to the chat group of a signal, Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. According to the Financial Times, JD Vance’s comments on Europe to Europe drew a clear picture of how the EU wants to see and see that the US is targeted to pay its military actions against Houthi rebels. The problem raises only the USA’s military operations, arms inventories and tactical plans, as a third -party chat application, only the US stance on Europe.
Daily Digest Market Carriers: Emotion Weighing
- In early European trade, the German Economic Research Institute (IFO) released the emotion index. The current assessment number took place at 85.7 and defeated the expectation of 85.5 and the previous 85.0 reading.
- Around 12:40 GMT, the Federal Reserve Governor (Fed) Adriana D. Kugler spoke on economic landscapes and entrepreneurship at the US Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit. Kugler from the Fed said the Fed could wait and keep the rates fixed for a longer period of time.
- The housing price index in January was 0.2% as expected, it was more soft than the previous 0.4% reading, which was revised to 0.5%.
- Philadelphia fell to -32.5, which was fed by the non -production activity index for March, and in February, it already came from the number of -13.1 contraction.
- New York President Bank John Williams, New York FED, New York 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference promised to open.
- Some US economic data were published around 14:00 GMT:
- US business confidence or fall to March -15.1 -11.5 survey is missing and under the previous -12.3 reading.
- The US Conference Board Consumer Güven drops from 100.1 to 92.9, which is missing 94.0.
- New home sales for February falls 0.676 million and 0.68 million estimated.
- Richmond Fed Production Index March contracts to -4 is missing +1 estimated and below the previous +6.
- Stocks are confused by collapsing Chinese indices this Tuesday. Hang Seng closed more than 2%. European stocks are over 1.00%and US futures are less positive.
- According to the CME Fedwatch vehicle, the probability of 4.25-4.50%in the current range at the May meeting is 89.2%. In June, borrowing costs are 62.5%lower.
- The US 10 -year return is traded around 4.31% after the sale of bonds on Monday.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Business Duygu Sinks
The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces some sales prints on Tuesday after a very early test to break over 104.50. Returning comes after US President Donald Trump has published more concerns and restrictions on tariffs before the last date on April 2. US Vice President JD Vance’s leaked messages from European and other trade partners are a concern for the markets.
With over 104.00 weekly closing last week, a sprint may still occur to 105.00 round level, the 200 -day simple moving average (SMA) gets close at this point and strengthens this area as a strong resistance in 104.97. After breaking from this region, a number of significant levels such as 105.53 and 105.89 may limit upward momentum.
The disadvantage can be considered as the first support near the 104.00 round level. If this is not valid, the DXY decreases between 104.00 and 103.00 falling into this March range. When the lower end of 103.00 gives attention to 101.90 in the lower direction.
US Dollar Index: Daily Graphics
Central Banks FAQ
It has a key task that ensures price stability of central banks in a country or region. When prices are fluctuated for certain goods and services, economies are constantly faced with inflation or deflation. Continuous prices for the same goods mean inflation, continuous low prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the duty of the Central Bank to keep the demand at the same time by changing the policy rate. It is to keep inflation close to 2%for the largest central banks such as the US Federal Reserve (FED), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the UK Bank (Boe).
A central bank has an important tool for the fact that inflation is higher or lower, which is widely known as the interest rate by changing the criterion policy rate. In the moments that have previously communicated, the Central Bank will make a statement with the policy rate and will provide additional reasoning about why the remaining or why it is changed (cut or walk). Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which will make people more difficult or easier for companies to buy loans and invest in their business. When the Central Bank significantly increases interest rates, this is called monetary tightening. When cutting the comparison rate, this is called monetary expansion.
A central bank is generally politically independent. The members of the Central Bank Policy Committee pass through a series of panels and hearing before being appointed as a policy committee seat. Each member of this board usually has a certain belief that the central bank should control inflation and subsequent monetary policy. In order to see inflation slightly above 2%, members who want a very loose monetary policy with low rates and cheap loans to significantly increase the economy in terms of content are called ‘pigeons’. Members who want to see higher rates to reward savings and always enlighten inflation are called ‘hawk’ and inflation will not be listened until 2%.
Normally, there is a president or president who leads every meeting, who has a consensus between hawks or pigeons, and has the last word to avoid 50-50 ties as to whether the current policy will be set. The president will make speeches that can usually be followed live, where the existing monetary posture and appearance are transmitted. A central bank will try to claim monetary policy in proportions, in stocks or currencies without triggering severe release. All members of the Central Bank will channel their attitudes towards markets before a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting was realized until the new policy was transmitted, it is forbidden for members to talk to the public. This is called dimming period.
